I had a very interesting Tuesday evening. I went to the Dome in Brighton to hear Malcolm Gladwell speak. For those who don’t know who he is. He is the author of three books, Turning Point, Blink and his latest Outliers. Blink was about instant appraisals of people produced by our own conditioning. Outliers is about people with events that produce phenomenal outcomes.
His talk on Tuesday was about the financial crisis tying in with the American Civil War! It was all about the battle of Chancellorsville. General Hooker took over a very dispirited army. He was able to inspire them and get them food. Due to his spy network and the availability of a hot air balloon he was able to get much information about the other side who was commanded by Robert E Lee. Gladwell then spoke about a physiological test. Students were given two pages about a person and then asked to answer questions about him. They were then give a couple more pages and asked the same questions. They were given another couple of sheets again having to answer the questions. Finally they were given all the information about this person. The research showed that with the added information the students still only got around 27% right. The very interesting observation is that the students assessment of how well they did went up to nearly 90% when given all the information.
Getting back to the American Civil War, General Hooker had all this information coming in and made his own assumption of what was happening. He did not listen to his other Generals. He felt he new everything. He was beaten by Lee.
He was looked on as an expert, like all the top bankers who were dealing with our money. They all felt they new better and didn’t heed any warnings! The conclusion is that it is best to have someone who is humble in a position of power, who is not afraid to admit there are other possibilities, rather than an overconfident person who does not listen. Unfortunately we are drawn to the charismatic characters who are confident. We are told confidence is a good thing. Unfortunately it has caused the problems we are in now!
It was a very interesting talk. I came away with a signed copy of Outliers!
Missed this posting first time round, sounded like a good evening. Nice report, thanks.
All the best